DUP set for electoral success
BEFORE everybody rushes to ridicule the Ulster Unionist Party or the individuals who resigned the party whip at Westminster, let's just take a reality check.
The Agreement has done no favours for unionism.
That isn't a statement about the rightness or wrongness of supporting the Agreement, or not, it's simply a judgment of political fortunes.
The UUP has found itself struggling, election after election, even to consolidate its overall support. In fact, it's been losing votes hand over fist.
During the same period, however, its main rival in the unionist camp, the DUP, is barely recognisable from the sullen table-bangers and nay-sayers of five years ago.
One of the big selling points among the UUP faithful was that signing up to the Agreement would finally see off the electoral threat from the DUP, who would be outside the loop of power.
Now, in spite of having been the butt of jokes by every cheap comedian over the past five years, the DUP stands solid, coherent and glamorous.
Not that long ago rumour abounded that party leader Dr Ian Paisley was not long for this world. Rather than believing these, he lost weight, bought some snazzy new suits and - crucially - brought through a younger and effective party apparatus.
Strangely, for a party that was supposedly a one-man band, the DUP has developed political personnel to a high level unmatched by any other in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein and the SDLP included.
Iris Robinson, Nigel Dodds, Peter Robinson and Ian Paisley jnr are a formidable frontbench by any party's standards.
Put bluntly, the UUP can't match that.
The problem with shedding the Really Oldies - their lordships Taylor and Maginnis - is that the party has been left thin on experience.
Yes they have some very capable, genuine, heavy-hitters but somehow the party still looks stale, tired and very old.
Seeing the UUP and DUP together is a bit like seeing Rod Stewart at Ascot, in a top hat and tails, with his, shall we say, fresher-looking girlfriend.
Even Sinn Fein, which brought about an incredible transformation in the 80s, can't say (as the DUP can) that their leaders operate without a high degree of risk to their positions.
Of course, that DUP line-up is the main reason why Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside will, quite sensibly, do all sorts of tap-dancing before they ever really consider seriously throwing their lot in with the DUP.
Let's face it, they may have "leadership issues"' in the UUP but they wouldn't get within a beagle's gowl of the top post in the DUP.
Yes, Martin Smyth did mount a leadership challenge a while back but the fact is that he is more desperately concerned about the Union than about who other than Trimble runs the Unionist Party.
And this points up the oddness of this trio of malcontents.
It's all very well tilting at Trimble via endless party councils - everybody can take a potshot according to their own particular gripe but, at the end, it was always going to be 54:46, or whatever, in Trimble's favour.
It never came down to a radical, simple mano-a-mano vote between Trimble and Donaldson for the leadership.
Points of policy, yes. Make me leader, no.
Now, their latest failure of nerve has forced all three are out of the closet - in a way that would make it very difficult to get back in.
Quite aside from the big issue of pro- or anti-Agreement, Assembly or no-Assembly, the question now is very clear: do either Donaldson or Burnside offer viable leadership alternatives to Trimble?
And how do their own career ambitions size up with each other in this regard?
These questions are there to be answered, but they come at a time when David Trimble is less likely than ever to play into their hands by trotting back into the Assembly.
In the meantime, they are in the unenviable position of straddling two very high and very far apart stools.
If either side should kick the legs from under them, they'll have very sore rear-ends indeed.
international |
politics / elections |
opinion/analysis
Friday July 04, 2003 20:32
by Rooster
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Comments (13 of 13)
Jump To Comment: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13http://barcelona.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=47834&group=webcast
http://ungoogle.com/
http://www.dup.org.uk/
http://www.dup.nu/
hee hee hee hee hee.
Let me first welcome your imput Rooster, as its not that often that we are presented with a Unionist (possibly anti-agreement) on Indymedia.
There a few points I would like to raise.
"...the DUP stands solid, coherent and glamorous."
Can anyone else clarify to me whether the DUP is seen as glamorous, if so in what way?
"Strangely, that was supposedly a one-man band, the DUP has developed political personnel to a high level unmatched by any other in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein and the SDLP included."
Adams, McGuinness, De Brun, Pat Doherty, Gerry Kelly, Alex Maskey, Michelle Gildernew, Conor Murphy.
In the 26:
Aengus Ó Snodaigh, Martin Ferris, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin, Seán Crowe, Arthur Morgan, Daithí Doolan, Mary Lou McDonald and Killian Forde.
"Of course, that DUP line-up is the main reason why Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside will, quite sensibly, do all sorts of tap-dancing before they ever really consider seriously throwing their lot in with the DUP."
Whether the DUP's "line-up" is that impressive or not, I personally have my doubts, I don´t think that´s the main reason Donaldson, nor Burnside won´t seriously consider the DUP.
I think its got a lot to do with the fact that Donaldson and Burnside if they left the UUP, they would be seen to have caused a split in the UUP. Something their middle class/well to do voters especially, would never forgive them for.
They have also spent years in a party that's been consistently attacking the DUP. To go over to the dark side, would be seen as just that.
Its seems that whomever amongst the two main Unionist parties that says "No!" the loudest and for the longest amount of time shall eventually win over the majority of Unionists.
Unionists are dissatisfied with Trimble but unfortunately parties like the women's coalition and the PUP have minimal support in the north, and therfore like the US, Spain, and for many years in the 26 people only have(had) a choice between the least worst option of two.
My two cents worth.
We will support the UUP. My surplus in West belfast should bring in the UUP candidate.
Oh look it's one of our handful of trolls trying to divert a thread into attacks on the SP. Bet that comes as a surprise to us all!
could ever say that the SP were pro loyalist. No grounds for it.
Whats this I hear abou Harryville, Garvaghy Road, Pat finucane, Holycross? All lies! Shut up!
I repeat:
"Oh look it's one of our handful of trolls trying to divert a thread into attacks on the SP. Bet that comes as a surprise to us all!"
Jeffery's ambition is boundless, his grip on political logic at best tenuous. He is known to regularly speak (off the record, of course) about how 'Jesus' is making him do all this stuff.
Whether he can now control his mania for the good of the party is no longer in any real doubt.
The speeches this 12th should make interesting listening, Scarva and Belfast are recommended, but don't forget to bring a titanium corset if wearing an unloyal brogue accent.
Schalom, BP
Ian Paisley Jnr exclusively educated at Methodist College belfast, not at Pappa doc Paisleys family run chain of Free presbitarian Christian schools where corporal punishment is all part of christian love for God's lickle children.
Only people who sin soo much have to go to church soo often for redemption and repentance.
The answer's no, Jeffrey O Donaldson, David bumside and leather face Martyn Smyth don't want to loose their social position, connections and standing in society, to join simple minded, common unrefined, ungenteel DUP farmers.
Sean quotes rooster: "Strangely, that was supposedly a one-man band, the DUP has developed political personnel to a high level unmatched by any other in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein and the SDLP included."
And then Sean gives a list of prominent republicans. (and to be fair, i've only heard of killian thru indymedia, and mary lou from an anti-nice meeting, but im nit picking)
Sean, just a thought, ok I don't know what its like to be a unionist (contrary to what our residnet SP obsessives would have us believe) - and I'm assuming that neither do you. But maybe its possible that within unionism, the DUP do have a 'top boys' (well known and 'respected' unionists) list, and we just don't know about it? Personally the only ones i can think of right now are the Paisley twosome.
And i do think that if elections were tomorrow, the UUP would be totally fucked, and the DUP the major winners within the unionist camp. But thats not an endorsement on the suspensions of the elections. Let 'democracy' happen, and let the dialectic do its thing.
And hey, as soon as this article was posted, i was waiting for the HMSP Hadden comment. It took a few days, but I knew it was coming. "hurrah!" for the predictabilty of a certain anonymous poster! - now why don't you just tell us all who you are? naaaaaaah.
As an aside, today i saw two greyhounds ripping apart and eating a chicken in my back-garden. (don't ask, horrible story). well i had to get that off my chest and here's as good a place as any, but i think it may also have a hidden meaning... (bauwkbukbukawk)
Kev "(and to be fair, i've only heard of killian thru indymedia, and mary lou from an anti-nice meeting, but im nit picking)"
I know, they're presently not as prominent as the rest. But if you haven't seen them much yet, you will undoubtedly see them in the coming months.
Both have been very active within Sinn Féin in Dublin and are being pushed by the party.
"Sean, just a thought, ok I don't know what its like to be a unionist (contrary to what our residnet SP obsessives would have us believe) - and I'm assuming that neither do you. But maybe its possible that within unionism, the DUP do have a 'top boys' (well known and 'respected' unionists) list, and we just don't know about it?"
Your correct I'm not a Unionist nor do I claim to know what it's like being a Unionist.
About the DUP "Top Boys" list though, again it is possible that such a list exists I don't know.
Although the point I was trying to make was that there was at the very least equally is not a more impressive list of prominent republicans north and south of the border.
http://www.sluggerotoole.com/home/reports/the_long_peace.pdf
interesting little pamhlet that got this reaction from Ian Paisley:
asked him what he thought of A Long Peace?, our think piece on the future of Unionism of Northern Ireland. After pinpointing which of the many reports he'd been bombarded with in the last few months it was, he replied, "Aye, it wasn't bad, I suppose". I asked him if I could quote him on that, and he immediately qualified it by saying, "Well, what I mean is that it didn't make my heckles rise! If you know what I mean?"
Mick Fealty @ 05 September 2003 04:52 PM
see: http://www.sluggerotoole.com/
{ I yesterday watched the editions of Monty Python's Flying Circus official video subtitled in Spanish vol 21, series 60, recorded in 1974 in which Ian Paisley is displayed as a touppeé model in the Department store. }
Now the big mon will not be around for ever, and he needs a touppée more now than in 1974, and much of the "basic" stuff hasn't changed a bit, and most of the "gritty" stuff has changed completely.