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Climate Chaos Brings the Big Melt to the Far North

category international | environment | feature author Saturday December 31, 2005 00:56author by Terry - 1 of IMC Report this post to the editors

Polar Bear

2005, the second warmest year on record, beaten only by 1998, was another year of freak weather and climate chaos, from drought, to flooding, to hurricanes, much of it caused by the collision between society and ecology that is global warming.

Global warming is principally produced by adding more carbon dioxide, from burning fossil fuels, such as oil, gas and coal, to the naturally occurring ‘greenhouse effect’.

This is where greenhouses gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere trap a portion of the suns’ rays on earth. Other contributory factors include the production of methane in farming, and deforestation, as plants consume carbon dioxide.

This article looks at a range of new research on the impact of climate change on the Arctic that has come out in late 2004 and throughout 2005.


Related Links:
Wikipedia entry on Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
Rising Tide
Climate Indymedia
Wikipedia entry on Global Warming
2005 was the second warmest year on record

In November 2004, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, a scientific survey commissioned by the eight states with Arctic territories, found that by the summer of 2070 the Arctic might have no ice at all. The icecap has diminished by 15% to 20% in the past 30 years, with the poles heating up at a higher rate than the rest of the globe. (1)

Even the EPA, an official U.S. Government body, admits: “Arctic temperatures during the late 20th century appear to have been the warmest in 400 years.
Satellite data suggest that the extent of snow cover has declined by 10 percent since the late 1960s.
During the 20th century, the annual duration of lake and river ice cover in the mid- and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere declined by about two weeks.”
(2)

This month, Michel Jarraud, boss of the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organisation said that Arctic sea-ice was melting more than ever before, with the average cover in the key month of September down 20% on the average for 1979-2004. (3)

Parts of Alaska are currently experiencing a tourist boom, as visitors rush to see the glaciers while they still can, before they are melted. "This evidence is visual, and it's real. All the glaciers in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge are retreating from their most extended positions thousands of years ago, and the only scientific explanation for their retreat is a change in climate.”, commented Matt Nolan of the University of Alaska. (4)

Another anomalous phenomenon of the far north today is drowned polar bears. 2005 was the first year scientists documented multiple polar bears drowning off the Alaskan coast. Previously this was too rare to be recorded. Researchers from U.S. Minerals Management Service also observed a change in the bears’ behaviour, while each previous annual survey found them on sea ice, in 2005 they tended to be found swimming at unusually far distances from the shore, or on land. It is typical for polar bears to swim short distances between ice floes, while hunting seals, but with the ice cap shrinking to an unprecedented extent in 2005, the gaps between the ice are getting bigger and bigger and the creatures’ habitat – literally – is disappearing from under them. (5)

An earlier Canadian study found that with the ice over Hudson Bay retreating bears were forced into human populated areas in the search for food. (6)

This has made something of an impact in the United States, with Greenpeace recently running a T.V. ad campaign, while previously Fox News dismissed the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment on the basis of reports of villagers being plagued by polar bears. This of course being just the sort of product of the removal of the bears’ habitats mentioned in the various surveys.
Richard Steiner, a marine-biology professor at the University of Alaska, commented "For anyone who has wondered how global warming and reduced sea ice will affect polar bears, the answer is simple -- they die".

The big melt in the frozen north is creating what is called a ‘positive feedback’. In this context this means an effect of global warming which itself goes on to contribute to global warming.
In August of 2005 researchers reported that an area of West Siberian permafrost peat bog the size of France and Germany combined was thawing. As it defrosts the peat will release methane – a greenhouse gas – into the atmosphere, creating more global warming and climate chaos. This could be a ‘tipping point’, a situation where relatively small change in temperature produces environmental transformations that create irreversible major changes in temperature. Sergei Kirpotin, of Tomsk State University described the frozen peat thaw as an "ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming". Earlier, in May 2005, scientists found the same process at work in eastern Siberia. (7)

The big melt may have profound effects on the climate of Western Europe. This is as we are warmed by the Gulf Stream, hotter waters coming to us from the Caribbean, part of what is known as the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt aka thermohaline circulation. As the Gulf Stream goes north surface water evaporates and the saltier, and hence denser, water left is heavier and is pushed by this, and gravity, to the ocean floor where it forms a giant under-sea river eventually making its way back to the Pacific and making space for warmer waters to push northward. Hence Western Europe is warmer than other places at the same latitude to us. An increase in fresh water, from melting Arctic ice and from Siberian rivers gorged on thawing permafrost, could disrupt this process. (8) This is as fresh water is saltless and hence less dense and heavy.

New research suggests that the breakdown of this oceanic pump is more likely than some previously thought. According to Michael Schlesinger, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois “This is a dangerous, human-induced climate change,the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation has been characterized as a high-consequence, low-probability event. Our analysis, including the uncertainties in the problem, indicates it is a high-consequence, high-probability event.” (9)

But it is not all bad news. If I might torture indy readers with a few clichés there is a light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel, there is a sliver-lining-to-this-cloud.
At least there is for the directors and shareholders of oil corporations.
The aforementioned Arctic Climate Impact Assessment also found that: “offshore oil exploration and production are likely to benefit from less extensive and thinner ice."
Removal of the ice will allow major resources, previously inaccessible, to be reached and exploited. (10)

Statoil, and others, are already engaged in oil exploration in the Barents Sea off Norway’s Arctic coast. (11)

Hence long-running sovereignty disputes over Arctic waters, involving the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway and Denmark, have been given a marked impetus. Now there are important potential profits lying, for the time being, underneath the frozen seas. In August Denmark and Canada both sent warships to Hans Island, an uninhabited rock of no-economic value between Greenland (Danish Territory) and Canada. While Hans Island itself is unimportant it is a matter of establishing precedence. (12)
Anyone expecting a solution to global environmental problems within the framework of capitalism should take note of this.
The prospect of the exploitation of oil accessible due to climate chaos, and contributing to climate chaos, is a social rather than environmental ‘positive feedback’.

References:

(1)Global Warming Will Leave Arctic Ice Free

(2) Impacts on Polar Regions

(3) Polar Bears Living on Thin Ace

(4) Visitors rush to glimpse vanishing glaciers

(5) Is Global Warming Killing the Polar Bears?

(6) Global warming could starve polar bears

(7) Warming hits 'tipping point' Scientists warn thawing Siberia may trigger global meltdown

(8) The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt – Environmental Literacy Council The Great Ocean Conveyer Belt – United Nations Environment Programme

(9)Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age Global Warming Could Halt Ocean Circulation Hotter World May Freeze Britain

(10) Global Warming May Boost Oil Industry Global Warming Exposes Arctic to Oil, Gas Drilling

(11) Norway gives oil firms too much say in Arctic – WWF Localizing new, versus reduced, access to fossil resources No Oil in the Barents Sea

(12) Canada's arctic sovereignty claim angers Denmark July 25 Hans Island the tip of iceberg in Arctic claims July 31 Danish navy ship headed for Hans Island August 4 HMCS Fredericton leaves Halifax for Arctic patrol August 18 Canada sends navy to Arctic north 23rd August Canada sends warships to protect northern boundaries August 28 Canadians Uprise August 28

author by Tpublication date Wed Mar 15, 2006 14:59author address author phone Report this post to the editors

It's been reported that the amount of CO-2 entering the atmosphere has been rapidly increasing. Last year (2005) saw the biggest year increase at 2.6 ppm bringing the total up to 381 ppm which it is estimated to be the highest in at least a million and perhaps 30 million years.

Full report at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4803460.stm

Also reported is that the annual melting of the edges of the Arctic sea ice which has reached record levels has not being reforming over the winter months. This means the ice is basically retreating during winter months too. As the report says:

"Scientists are now convinced that Arctic sea ice is showing signs of both a winter and a summer decline that could indicate a major acceleration in its long-term rate of disappearance. The greatest fear is that an environmental "positive feedback" has kicked in, where global warming melts ice which in itself causes the seas to warm still further as more sunlight is absorbed by a dark ocean rather than being reflected by white ice."

And also:

Professor Peter Wadhams, of Cambridge University, who was the first Briton to monitor Arctic sea ice from nuclear submarines, said: "One of the big changes this winter is that a large area of the Barents Sea has remained ice-free for the first time. This is part of Europe's 'back yard'. Climate models did predict a retreat of sea ice in the Barents Sea but not for a few decades yet, so it is a sign that the changes that were predicted are indeed happening, but much faster than predicted."

Related Link: http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article351135.ece
author by eeekkkkkkpublication date Sat Feb 11, 2006 15:18author address author phone Report this post to the editors

"The passing of this threshold is of the most enormous significance," said Tom Burke, a former government adviser on the green issues, now visiting professor at Imperial College London. "It means we have actually entered a new era - the era of dangerous climate change. We have passed the point where we can be confident of staying below the 2 degree rise set as the threshold for danger. What this tells us is that we have already reached the point where our children can no longer count on a safe climate."

The boomers are afraid of death and their search for 'security' will finish off all that follow in their wake imo. They have a god shaped hole and are trying to fill it with money and outlandish thoughts of GM provided eternal life as they hate and succumb to the worst forms of nihilism. Anyone who builds big roads is one of these at this point imo.

Gaia should have filled the god shaped hole but didn't.

Related Link: http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article344690.ece
author by Tpublication date Fri Jan 20, 2006 19:21author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Thirty years ago, the scientist James Lovelock worked out that the Earth possessed a planetary-scale control system which kept the environment fit for life. He called it Gaia, and the theory has become widely accepted. Now, he believes mankind's abuse of the environment is making that mechanism work against us. His astonishing conclusion - that climate change is already insoluble, and life on Earth will never be the same again.

The full article in the UK independent can be found here but it seems that you may need access.
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article338878.ece

So Lovelock himself has added further commentary outlining his position and this can be found in full here titled:
James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article338830.ece

author by Charles B.publication date Thu Jan 05, 2006 17:46author address author phone Report this post to the editors

for those of us who have the presence of mind to say, thats it, we're gone past the point of no return. Decadent action, promote the use of nonrenewable fuels, promote over consumption, get obesity onto the cover of vogue as being the in look, that sort of thing. It looks to me that no matter how many middle class activists get involved, stomp their feet and make a little noise, that there is a legion of either wananbe venture capitalists, or poor working class who just won't regard the overwhelming evidence that we are choking our planet with waste, pollutants and more flaming kids!!! Something I heard recently is that people didn't feel that they could trust scientists to interpret the data that is being gathered, hah!!
I still reckon it will take a couple of nukes or a major environmental catastrophe to wake us from our responsibility slumber, either that or revolution, maybe thats the way, but maybe not, everybody that I know who could possibly affect change is too comfortable living the high life. Ah fuck it I'm off to the den for an evening of wine, women and song, let the apocalypse come, but not too soon, I wany my grandchildren to pass away first.

author by dunk - eco city grouppublication date Thu Jan 05, 2006 17:41author email fuspey at yahoo dot co dot ukauthor address author phone Report this post to the editors

perhaps trying to create eco cities might be one of the answers?

that eco city idea is starting to take off in china
http://easa.antville.org/stories/1294501/

and in relation to dublin:
botanic spine:
an 18km orbital eco corridor/ greenway for dublin city. a green thread that connects up a series of pocket parks, organic food gardens, local amenities, cities waterways and a new city metro underground.
http://www.dublin.ie/botanicspine/

View Botanic Spine detailed plan PDF
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ecocity/files/botanic%20spine.pdf

and local food production is a big part of eco cities ; CPUL's (continous productive urban landscapes)
dolphins barn community garden
http://www.dublin.ie/dolphinsbarngarden
Bringing Nature to Man's Domain
http://www.indymedia.ie/newswire.php?story_id=69689

botanic spine : an eco corridor for dublin city
botanic spine : an eco corridor for dublin city

author by Tpublication date Thu Jan 05, 2006 17:29author address author phone Report this post to the editors

This report is important and the individual contents may be news to most people but it would be fair to say that most people have been aware of global/climate warming for more than a decade now, and that somehow it is not going to have beneficial effects.

However my day to day encounters with people over the years when this topic usually comes up, generally amounts to: 'Well at least we are going to have better summers'. It seems that few people realize or rather want to know what the consequences of climate warming will mean for them. And which are that the entire set of ecosystems on Earth will be messed around and shifted and this for starters will radically effect our food supply and the current carrying capacity of the Earth, even though we are already well past overshoot and have degraded vast areas pretty much permanently in terms of humans lifespan.

As well as that, there is a general feeling of helpless and the inevitable. Besides few are going to take up some form of action that makes them look stupid socially, such as standing outside the local car sales showroom with a placard or deciding to walk instead of drive to their local supermarket a mile away or whatever and lug everything back by hand.

No, what we need to do is somehow connect this issue personally to people and to do the same to enable people to take action. The chances of this though are slim.

Our entire suburban way of life and consumer lifestyle has more or less locked people in economically and socially to staying the course until disaster strikes.

There are many aspects to our dilemna and response. A good start would be to read some of the articles by William Catton (see URL below) and as relates to here one should read his:

The Problem of Denial by William Catton
http://www.mnforsustain.org/catton_problem_of_denial.htm

More at:

Related Link: http://www.mnforsustain.org/author_catton_william.htm
author by BANANAMANpublication date Mon Jan 02, 2006 23:33author address author phone Report this post to the editors

I especially like the bit near the end, light at the end of the tunnel and all that.

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