Osama bin Laden published a post-Iraq war statement on October 23. The essence of the statement is that the war is over and Islam has won. It is now time to achieve an Islamic State in Iraq.
Last weeks US revelation that it intends to withdraw 3,000 soldiers, combined with the new Labour PM in Australia announcing the withdrawal of Auzzie soldiers will strengthen this perception. Bin Laden warns all Iraqi mujahideen - Sunni and Shiite - that the hardest task is yet to come: namely, the creation of an Islamist state in Iraq.
He praises the Resistance:
"magnificent victories that make Americans prisoners of their bases and the Green Zone - The world has stood stunned, amazed, delighted and wonder-struck. Watching America the tyrannical: watching its legions breaking apart under your strikes, its brigades being wiped out in front of your raids and its battalions being obliterated by the pounding of your squadrons ... O people of Iraq ... O eminent ones of the Turks, Kurds and Arabs: the affair of unbelief [the US occupation] has been shaken and confused, and the time of his fleeing is nigh, so increase his confusion and disarray, and strike some more at his neck and hit it with a bone-cutting sword. The bearer of the banner of the cross has increased his soldiers and claimed that he will defeat the soldiers of faith, so be resolute - may Allah be merciful to you - and remember Him much, for he is watching you ... You have done well by carrying out one of the greatest of duties which few carry out: repelling the attacking enemy”.
The Iraqis and Muslims in are generally are amazed that US forces have been beaten so easily in Iraq, and that they are withdrawing so soon.
US Army commanders claim a reduction in Insurgent attacks shows their surge is working. The mujahideen know there is no point in going up against the temporary surge forces. They will rather absorb them further into the successful guerrilla war. They know US voters favor withdrawal and have heard their politicians promise it. They see little point in aggressively attacking a retreating foe, risking humiliating him, and thereby causing him to reconsider his decision to leave in favor of staying to fight.
Bin Laden continues. “But some of you have been tardy in performing another duty which is also among the greatest of duties: combining your ranks to make them one rank as loved by Allah, who said, "Truly Allah loves those who fight in His cause in ranks, as if they were a solid cemented structure. Infidelity on all its levels - international, regional and local - is combining to prevent the establishment of the state of Islam ... Sticks refuse to break when banded together. But if they come apart they break one by one. Beware of your enemies, especially the hypocrites who infiltrate your ranks to stir up trouble among mujahid groups".
Bin Laden is referring to Saudi officials who give assistance to the most Wahhabist Iraqi mujahideen. This is disruptive of efforts to promote insurgent unity. Zarqawi was also chided by al Qaida leaders for his sectarianism which cause further division. Iran is also fostering sectarianism.
Bin Laden sees the struggle to create unity in Iraq as a major struggle. It is not an easy task but if it is successful the ramifications across the middle east will be enormous. A united Islamic force facing into Israel with the defeated United States scurrying home would be unstoppable.