Sources of good info on Russian-Georgian conflict

by Jim Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:37

The Ossetians were a people of central Russia who were displaced by the Mongols centuries ago and settled in the region which is now Ossetia.
Following the break up of the Soviet Union, Ossetians found themselves partitioned between North Ossetia inside Russia and South Ossetia inside Georgia.
During the Georgian civil war that followed independence from Moscow the region of South Ossetia was administered by Georgian and Russian peacekeepers.
Increasingly the South Ossetians have exerted greater and greater independence and more than 50% of South Ossetians now hold Russian passports.
Border clashes with Russia and clashes with South Ossetians have led to the violence which began on August 1 when Georgian forces moved to surround the South Ossetian capital which came under heavy bombardment and opposing forces fought fierce street battles. south Ossetians refugees have been flooding over the Russian border and there have been reports of atrocities by Georgian forces against innocent civilians
Russia has been supporting Ossetians because it is opposed to Georgia and other nations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia formerly in the sphere of influence from joining Nato or the EU or moving in the direction of US interests in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
It is quite clear that Russia who possess more men, artillery guns, armoured vehicles and tanks, helicopters and jet aircraft have the edge over Georgians who possess similar weapons but a miniscule in comparison.
Russia has already captured most of South Ossetia and is moving on the city of Gori and next stop possibly Tiblisi while the Georgians are falling back or being routed by the Russian advance. Meanwhile the Black Sea port of Poti, where the tiny Georgian navy is situated has been reportedly destroyed by aerial bombardment.
It is likely the Georgian will surrender in the next few days before Tiblisi falls.
The United States support Georgia as a regional ally (Georgia has about 2,000 troops serving in Iraq) but it is unlikely to risk a wider possibly nuclear war in the Ukraine or the Baltic if Russia moves against other pro-American allies.
The EU is unlikely do anything except a call for both sides to cease hostilies and make peace. Europe after all especially Eastern Europe depends on Russia for its energy and fuel.
We can expect Georgia will capitulate soon and peace negotiations will force Georgia to give up South Ossetia.
Russia will try to go as deep into Georgia as possible in advance of a final ceasefire to have a greater bargaining position in subsequent talks.
Let us hope that many more civilians are not killed until then.

This conflict will sour East/West relations like nothing we have seen since the end of the Cold War.

It is clear the China and Russia are stepping up their challenge to US dominance across Asia, Africa, Latin and South America.

Expect future crises over Cuba, Venezeula, Taiwan and Iran over the next decade.

by redjade Sat Aug 09, 2008 13:10

In the wake of the outbreak of the Russian-Georgian War over Ossetia, Georgia wants to withdraw the 2,000 troops it has in Iraq. These troops appear to have been based in Diyala or Wasit provinces, where they have been preventing Shiite militiamen from smuggling arms in from Iran. Although the US military is playing down the impact of their withdrawal, it seems to me significant. The Iraqi army certainly could not be counted on to take up their work, since so much of it was recruited from Shiite militias. The US would have to divert 2,000 men to this dangerous task (and it is intrinsically dangerous to have US troops directly on the Iranian border). The Georgians beefed up their presence because they are trying to join NATO; from a Russian point of view this development is highly undesirable, which is part of the point of the fighting over Ossetia.

All this is not to mention that a US airlift of 2000 Georgian troops to fight Russian ones at this juncture does not look friendly to Moscow.

more at
http://www.juancole.com/2008/08/2000-georgian-troops-le....html

by not 1 of Sat Aug 09, 2008 15:52

http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/405939.html?c=on...01557

by not 1 of Sat Aug 09, 2008 16:18

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2008/08/the-south-osset.ht...ments

by satsuma Sat Aug 09, 2008 17:56

In addition to the compilation and coverage on IMC UK http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/405939.html
there is a discussion thread on IMC Russia
http://ru.indymedia.org/newswire/display/20803/index.php
At the moment opinion and localised analysis is being sought from people at the Kent climate change camp, at least one of them has signed on to the IMC Russian thread.

In the comments to the IMC UK piece there are good links to both sides of the conflict in English and for those who read it Russian.

Wikipedia's coverage is being expanded to discredit disinformation memes of the usual type (it's all a zionist plot) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War

by qui bono Sat Aug 09, 2008 22:01

I don't buy the ethnic division bit. The Kremlin could care less about those people.
Is this somehow tied into a pipeline deal in the Transcaucus? It would explain why NATO is even bothered with Georgia. But cutting across north Azerbaijan and then Georgia gets you from the Western Caspain Sea (plenty of oil and gas) to the Black Sea.

Russia, NATO and China's longer term plans all require them to redeploy forces chasing dwindling energy sources.

by Hugh Briss Sat Aug 09, 2008 22:35

here
http://postmanpatel.blogspot.com/2008/08/russia-attacks....html

excerpy:

Roundup

Some of these reports need confirming ;

1. Bottom line is that the BTC pipeline being discharged at either Turkish port of Ceyhan or Georgian Black Sea port of Poti will not be delivering oil for some time.

It seems curious that this suggests co-ordinated action between PKK and Russia and further suggests that the explosion / damage in the week may have had different authors.

The ramifications of an attack across international borders on energy sources of the Western allies by Russia are impossible, but awful to contemplate.

2. The Georgian Government ( watched passively by Uncle Sam) is evidently imposing by concerted and major military action a dramatic and violent policy of ethnic cleansing of the Ossetians from South Ossetia.

This is of course what happened when Bosnia evicted 200,000 Serbians from the Krajina enclave for which General Ante Gotovina is up before the beaks in the Hague currently. The American civilian / military forces, UAV and satellite surveillance and intelligence supplied by the US authorities, military or civil have not been indicted ...yet.

This action evidently initiated by Georgia immediately follows the recent NATO - US Army Exercise Immediate Response 2008 exercises completed July 31st to train Georgian forces

3. Any military response involves attacking main Russian territory. NATO have been challenged

by done & dusted Sun Aug 10, 2008 17:13

French media first reported calls for a ceasefire last night as Rusian media reported Georgians had withdrawn from South Ossetia- now both BBC and US media agree :

Georgia has taken the red crosses off its flag and waved what's left.
it's white.
coverage with links to local media with monitoring of Russian & English language sites here
http://indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/405939.html

attention now turns to calculating how many refugees and dead there are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_South_Ossetia_%2820...08%29

by - Sun Aug 10, 2008 21:37

The pro-US government of Georgia began with the so-called revolution of Roses which saw former Soviet foreign minister resign 23/11/03. The idea that ordinary Russians don't like that government has reached as far as the IMC Russia discussion thread on the war.

But the USA is saying this because Russia appears to have rejected a Georgian unilateral ceasefire & as a way of pretending it really supports Georgia in a more meaningful way than just flying its troops home from Iraq and increasing its garrison at the US embassy to Tbilisi. Ironically some of the US national Guard sent in there today might be from the US state of Georgia.

updating coverage of local press & IMC Russian takes on this ceasefire thing
http://indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/405939.html

wikipedia on the war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_South_Ossetia_%2820...08%29
(new bonus thread!) wikipedia on international reaction to the war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reaction_to_...a_War
So far Ireland has said nothing, but this merely suggests either it is because post-Lisbon the Irish have no interest in such things or Taoiseach Cowan is playing his cards close to his chest.

by jm - order of the bubblebath Sun Aug 10, 2008 22:59

I also read in an interview with an Abkhazian politician that they have been expecting a Georgian attack for weeks now, and thought they would get it before the Ossetians did.
The Ossetians were of course also fearing an attack too.

Some commentators finger the recent (June 08) recognition of Kosovo by many countries as being sign for russia
to take off the kid gloves when it comes to other small breakaway statelets, being abkhazia and south ossetia.

Another report says some 2000 US Marine Corp advisers spent several weeks on-site in georgia doing military training, and rumours
that a similar number of Israeli advisors are currently there in that role (can't verify the rumors, just saying wot I read).

The russians were complaining on tv that Georgia spent the last several years preparing for conflict, spending billion(s?) on
military materiel instead of building good relations with neighbors.

Georgia has also been courted by NATO, though after failing to be invited to join after the bucharest summit in april, was assured
that joining would remain on the table - further tweaking the russian bear's tail.

So on the balance of probabilities I'd say this was a pretty aggressive move by georgia, though of course our free press seem to
view this as a russian invasion, when the facts better fit a russian mobilisation of reinforcements to it's blue-helmeted peackeeping
force after a georgian attack.

One or two rumors of georgian ethnic cleansing are out there too, make of that what you will.

Two (2) pipelines carry oil from the caspian sea (on which Iran has a coast and a share of the contents of the vast fossil fuels therein)
to each of the black sea and the Med, through georgia.

The northern-black-sea one existed in soviet days, and was upgraded some time ago.
I'll be quite surprised if it still works after the smoke cears over the coming days.

The other runs to the med, and was subject to speculation that the Israelis would become principal users of it's output.
Apparently an iranian-sponored group (PKK?) blew it up a few days ago, and the many thousands of tons of crude will
take around two weeks to burn off .. or maybe they meant it'll take two weeks for the fires to go out and repairs to be completed.
I think this was the one in that stoopid james bond movie.

These losses represent around 1.5 million barrels a day of the world's 86MB/d oil supply, so it'd be time to go long on your oil investments again i'd say.

Oh and another thing. Supposedly 10 russian planes have been shot down, but I can't find anything by way of sources for this.
It piques my curiosity cos apparently georgia still have mostly ex-soviet-type hardware, including AA missiles; surely they have
something more fancy than SA-9s if they've bagged that many. Surely not the French gear the iraqis had? possibly irsaeli?
or do they use all american stuff? inquiring minds want to know....

j

by pat c Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:50

a couple more articles which see the dark hand of Israel behind these events.

War in Georgia: The Israeli connection

For past seven years, Israeli companies have been helping Gerogian army to preparer for war against Russia through arms deals, training of infantry units and security advice

The fighting which broke out over the weekend between Russia and Georgia has brought Israel's intensive involvement in the region into the limelight. This involvement includes the sale of advanced weapons to Georgia and the training of the Georgian army's infantry forces.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3580136,00.html

US And Israel Behind Georgia's Stupidity, Suffering
By Karl Schwarz

My bet is the Georgian Olympics team members are glad to be in Beijing and not dodging the Russian Bear in their homeland.
http://www.rense.com/general82/studp.htm

by pat c Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:58

This is the view from the World Socialist site:

The war that erupted August 7 between Russia and the former Soviet
republic of Georgia escalated over the weekend. Some 2,000 people
are thought to have been killed, according to estimates given by
both sides. Tens of thousands have been injured or driven from their
homes by shelling and air attacks.

The US-backed regime in Tbilisi sent troops into South Ossetia last
Thursday and carried out bombing attacks on the capital of
Tskhinvali in an attempt to reassert Georgian control over the
breakaway region, which has exercised de facto self-rule since the
dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/aug2008/ruge-a11_prn....shtml

by clearasmud Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:00

You can be sure that, whichever side was responsible for kicking this off, both sides military and intelligence services were watching the others carefully for months, although not watching enough, and stirring too much as is the usual formula.

Indeed, US Marines were training the Georgian Military, and probably a contingent flogging them some arms for training purposes as well, with a view to a larger order later on. The US will arm Georgia, but not risk pouring in any other overt support.

I don't buy the idea of Russia, being a supporter of independence for small states. Russia is a massive military/KGB kleptocracy, whose government tramples over peoples rights whenever they conflict with Kremlin plans.

No doubt both sides have been amassing forces recently, and it will probably be some time from now before we get to the truth or otherwise of reports that Georgia"No doubt both sides have been amassing forces recently, and it will probably be some time from now before we get to the truth or otherwise of reports that Georgia sent in it's army in response to a series of co-ordinated attacks on Georgian villages inside South Ossetia

either (a) this never happened, the Georgian's are making it up to cover up their aggression or
(b) there was localised attacks, which the Georgian's foolishly over-reacted to
(c) the attacks by "South Ossetians" on Georgian villages was staged by Russian undercover forces, as a way of drawing in Georgian forces, as a trigger for a Russian Assault. "

Additional comment.

I see the Russians claim to have bombed a Georgian Port, with multiple results, reducing imports into Georgia, and damaging the port where the pipeline from the Caspian meets the Black Sea.

NATO is interested in Georgia for resources, Russia likewise.
Neither the Pentagon nor the Kremlin would otherwise give a hoot about the people of South Ossetia.

Of course, as in many places where there has been decades of conflict and repression, and arbitrary borders it's not hard at all to stir up ethnic tensions, but in this case they are the tool rather than the actual cause of the conflict.

One need only see the compassion with which the Americans treat the Iraqis, and the Russians treat the people of Chechnya or Ingushetia to see how paper thin that argument is.

by oiladdict Mon Aug 11, 2008 14:38

Azerbaijan halts oil exports via Georgia ports: state oil firm

1 day ago

BAKU (AFP) — Azerbaijan has halted oil exports via the Georgian ports of Batumi and Kulevi due to clashes between Russia and Georgia, the head of the state oil company said Saturday.

"Since last night the import and export of oil through the Georgian ports of Kulevi and Batumi have been halted," said Rovnag Abdullayev, the head of the Azeri state oil company SOCAR, in televised comments.

"This is due to armed actions in the area of the Georgia-Ossetia conflict."

He added that SOCAR was "looking into the possibility of exporting oil through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, but the capacity of this pipeline is quite low," in a reference to a route that links the Azerbaijani capital to the Russian Black Sea Coast.

Earlier Saturday Russian planes staged a raid near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a major international oil route that runs through Georgia, but did not damage it, Georgia's prime minister said.

In recent years Georgia has become an important transport route for oil from Azerbaijan and other Caspian Sea oil producers, allowing Western oil firms to bypass Russia's oil pipelines.

by Jaque De Ladd Mon Aug 11, 2008 14:49

The BTC pipeline (Baku - Tblisi - Ceyhan) pipeline runs from Baku in Azerbaijan, through Georgia and down to Ceyhan in (NATO member) Turkey.

The current warfare in Georgia has caused the flow of oil to stop, and the oil company now has to consider exporting the oil through Russia instead.

I'm sure that's all just co-incidence of course...

copyleft artwork by Latuff.

by jm - bubbleologist Mon Aug 11, 2008 15:13

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4396#more

warning: contains polysyllabic words and sentences of multiple clauses

by Ivan Mon Aug 11, 2008 15:27

Of course Georgia has stopped oil going out of its port - it hasn't Oil to export. & a post-Soviet superpower fleet off coast. The pipeline has been closed for days now - before the war began.

But what should interest people more if they are looking for an "oil pipeline" angle on this is how BP have reported this afternoon that a fire on the the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline has finally been extinguished in Turkey where seperatist terrorists have also killed army personel today. The same seperatists terrorists who are fighting Iran for a homeland. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7716124

This of course puts the disinformation of last Friday by certain elements in different light. It also tilts the interpretation of the closure of the pipeline before the war began in the middle of last week as well. Too many people think this is about a pipeline. That would be an added bonus. that's all.

Meanwhile - according to themselves and the UN, both sides to the conflict have called for and called ceasefires......... Probably basque "ceasefires".

The key word today is "superpower". Russia is one. & She never stopped being one. she has enough pipelines and gas of her own and doesn't need to go organising a coalition of the willing to corner global supplies this side of peak supply. It's quite extraordinary how many people forgot that.

2 Georgian journalists working for the Russian version of the US magazine "Newsweek" are reported dead.

additional coverage :-

constantly updated coverage with links to local media with monitoring of Russian & English language sites here
http://indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/405939.html
wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reaction_to_...a_War

by Sceptic Mon Aug 11, 2008 16:15

From the (grandly named) “World Socialist” site :
“The US-backed regime in Tbilisi sent troops into South Ossetia”

This is purloining of language. The government of Georgia is as legitimately elected as any in Western Europe. It is unfair to malign it as a “regime in Tbilisi”. This reminds on of the days when An Poblacht described the Irish Government as the “Leinster House Regime” in its delegitimatizing propaganda.

The Government of Georgia enjoys friendly relations with the US. That is not the same thing as damning it as “US backed” as if it were a vassal. When countries are democratic they are inclined to want good relations and friendship with other democratic States, including the US.

The fact that there is an oil product pipeline involved does not excuse the actions of Russia in crossing an international border ostensibly to protect a minority with which Russia itself has showered with Russian passports in recent years. The protection of minorities is a matter for the State in which they reside not for a much larger and more powerful State to use an excuse for war and the encouragement of secessionists.

by O I C Mon Aug 11, 2008 17:32

"Of course Georgia has stopped oil going out of its port - it hasn't Oil to export. & a post-Soviet superpower fleet off coast. The pipeline has been closed for days now - before the war began."

thus the Russian Naval presence ensures that the oil doesn't get out of Georgia...

The BTC pipeline wasn't going to a port in Georgia, it terminates in Turkey. The Baku-Supsa pipeline terminates in Georgia.
And who's to say that the Russians didn't have a hand in the Turkish pipeline fire?
And perhaps the start of the hostilies, (Friday as far as we know) wasn't as much a surprise to locals and oil shippers as it was to CNN and the BBC?

I wouldn't be so sure that Russia has enough oil for it's needs and DESIRES.
Possession and control of oil, above and beyond needs for industry and domestic use is POWER, just like when they switch off the taps to Eastern Europe or Baltic states.

"The protection of minorities is a matter for the State in which they reside not for a much larger and more powerful State to use an excuse for war and the encouragement of secessionists. "

Actually, it should be a matter for everyone, but lets not be gullible, Russian politicians would use minorites as an excuse, (as you rightly called it) rather than state their real reason for action.

Let's hope there's a ceasefire soon, and maybe when the fog clears, we'll see more clearly who benefitted, and who was running what schemes. It's obvious who lost, as usual, the civilians. But who should be up before the Hague? Russia? NATO? Saakashvili? All of the above?

by CWI - CWI Mon Aug 11, 2008 17:45

Statement issued on 9 August 2008

Georgia/Russia conflict brings disaster for working people of region
Statement on South Ossetia

CWI in CIS (former Soviet Union)
As the Olympic Games in China open, attracting the attention of the world’s mass media, the conflict over the recognition of the republic of South Ossetia in Georgia exploded into open military conflict. The pro-American president of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvilli, sent troops to attack Tskinvalli, the capital of South Ossetia, and other places, with, according to South Ossetia’s president, the loss of over 1,000 lives. At least 15 Russian “peacekeeping troops”, who were based in South Ossetia were killed. In response, Russia sent in tanks and started air attacks, not only on Georgian troops, but, according to Saakashvilli, air bases, ports and even civilian areas away from South Ossetia. Sakashvilli has now declared that Georgia is in a ‘state of war’ and is calling up reserves.

Many residents in South Ossetia will, undoubtedly, look at intervention of Russian troops as a means to defend the peaceful South Ossetia population from the aggression of the Georgian army. However, as the experience of the bloody ethnic conflicts in the former Yugoslavia and elsewhere shows, the use of troops can not guarantee the safety of peaceful citizens. The Russian “peacekeeping mission” that was based in South Ossetia failed, and the current conflict threatens to pull in nearby unrecognized republics such as Abkhazia and Nagorno- Kharabakh. The Caucuses face the threat of a full scale regional war, with the possible involvement of other world powers.

The powers in both Russia and Georgia will use this conflict for their own ends. The Kremlin will blame ordinary Georgians, the Saakashvilli regime will blame ordinary Russians, and the people, who suffer, as always, will be ordinary people, Ossetins and Georgians. In the next period, there will be a new racist campaign against Georgians in Russia. But it is these very powers that are to blame for the death and destruction. These measures will be used to divide the peoples of Georgia, Russia and Southern Ossetia on ethnic lines. We must not let them defend their interests at the expense of ordinary people.

We call on all worker and left activists in Russia, Georgia and South Ossetia, and, of course, in other countries, to demand that military activities are immediately halted. Workers can not rely on the uncontrolled actions of their governments or intervention by some outside forces to solve the conflict; they can only rely on their own forces.

For the immediate stop of military activities and the withdrawal of troops from South Ossetia
For the right of South Ossetia, and the other unrecognized republics, to self determination without military intervention.
For united actions by the working masses of Georgia, Russia and South Ossetia to overthrow those governments who wage war against ordinary people
For the establishment of governments which will defend workers’ interests, overcome poverty and ensure peace in the region; for a democratic socialist federation of the Caucuses

by ivan Mon Aug 11, 2008 18:53

Russians report their "peacekeepers" have crossed from Abkhazia and taken control of the largest military base in Georgia. http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28829
Their morale is very high at the moment. For years people stopped thinking they were a superpower because they couldn't win a war in Afghanistan which for the youngest amongst us was the last time they went rolling their tanks about the shop.
___________________________________

clarifying the oil thing :- There was a "full stop" between the sentence which rightly said Georgia has no Oil to export and the sentance reporting on the pipeline. 2 different subjects, verbs and references.
In addition to the pipelines which pass through Georgia, which despite the suggestions made by that government that they were being targetted by Russia have in fact been damaged in Turkey - Georgia delivers oil to to its Black Sea neighbours through its ports. Kazakhstan has allied with Russia and hasn't sent oil to Georgia. There's no oil to send out of the ports - to either Russia (who won't even take postbags http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28814 ) or Turkey (who are supporting the electricity grid of Georgia at present).

___________________________________________________________

Ireland is very upset :- "Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheál Martin said he was "gravely concerned" about the outbreak of violence between Georgia and Russia; he also called on all parties to immediately accept Georgia's offer of a ceasefire."
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/mhqlmhcwcwau/

___________________________________________________________

Sarkozy was supposed to visit the region tomorrow but considering the propaganda video put out by The Georgian president today which shows him cowering under a bullet proof and body guards after trying to run away from a Russian jet, it is just possible that Sarko will change his mind. Because the plucky little Georgians have in the last quarter of an hour announced that they will fight tooth and nail to defend their capital city. http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2008/08/11/la-geor...36786
& you should be able to read between the lines in that one. (a) There was nothing in the Lisbon treaty about Georgia. (b) Ivan is rolling and losing an Afghan war doesn't mean you're not a superpower.

periodically updated article IMC UK
http://indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/405939.html
discussion thread IMC Russia
http://ru.indymedia.org/newswire/display/20803/index.php
international reaction wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_reaction_to_...a_War
wikipedia file on the war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_South_Ossetia_%2820...08%29

Bonus new Wikipage "the battle of Tskhinivali" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tskhinvali
subject to much discussion : http://www.wikirage.com/wiki/Battle_of_Tskhinvali/

by i-bawl Tue Aug 12, 2008 11:10

This is a well planned covert action to send a message to NATO.
Before anything kicked off in Georgia/South Ossetia, the PKK (who get Russian support) sabotaged part of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline in Turkey. (The pipeline, which opened in 2007, flows from Azerbaijan through Georgia and to Turkey, and from there is exported to the EU, US and Israel. )
And even prior to that, Russian railroad troops in Abkhazia were preparing infrastructure to move heavy military equipment into Georgia.
This has been planned well in advance, and as early as a week ago, the more overt signs of squaring up to each other were noticed. Then, according to a few reports I've read some pro-Russian agents staged attacks on a few Georgian villages in South Ossetia.
Then, spurred on by their NATO "Advisers", the Georgian military went in, and Russia had it's excuse to launch an invasion, bombing strategic ports, threatening the pipelines, crippling a lot of expensive military infrastructure, and forcing the oil to be exported through the alternative route, through Russia, just like the good old days.

The US is too tied up in Iraq to do anything, and they wouldn't risk a major confrontation with Russia over a small country like Georgia. The EU will take a soft line with Russia, for fear Moscow will turn off the taps during the winter.

So, the EU's hopes of not depending on Russia for 25% of it's oil and gas are shattered again. (of course, the citizens of Europe could try to reduce their consumption by 25% and thus cut Russian influence out completely, but how likely are we to do that?)

So, Russia will take South Ossetia, and Abkhazia, and probably a bit more, and then use the buffer as a negotiating point, and might even dare to take part of the pipeline Route.

And so yet another resource war between NATO's sphere of influence and the Kremlin goes down, with a lot of ordinary decent folks getting hammered in the middle.

by ivan Tue Aug 12, 2008 15:20

If you had ever played chess or even music with a Russian you'd know the true meaning of "well planned".

The last commentator almost casually implies that the sworn enemy of Turkey which is also engaged with the Islamic revolutionary guard of Iran, and incidently controls the territory of one of the four most important heroin transit routes on the planet - is a stooge of Russia.

gosh.

fancy that. Well, we don't look to Sunday Papers or an Irishman's diary for people who know about the side of things. Best just to leave it with the clichés.

Oil. Ivan. Boris. Uncle Sam and his bases and missiles. Mad Mullahs. pipelines. Have us by the gonads squeezing us both ways with their fuel. Sure we should all just kick the carbon habit, bury Ryanair and go ecological.

The cessation of the war is not quite "peace on earth" but it does raise interesting questions for both the immediate and longterm future. They will be discussed perhaps here but certainly on the IMC UK "opinion & analysis" section.

This article compiles all official conflict party news sources together with all IMC UK pieces on the war since last Friday lunchtime till the last couple of minutes ago when some christians decided to organise a pray-in. Prayer always helps.
https://publish.indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/406523.html

We have seen a lot of propaganda, some of it quite novel in the last week. Lots to be learnt from that.

by ivan - (u know who i am & was) Tue Aug 12, 2008 21:57

Sarko didn't go to Georgia in the end, he went to Moscow.

there was plenty about Moscow in the Lisbon treaty but you didn't read it.
now we enter the spin dimension.

Compare

"Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev and his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy have drawn up a six point peace plan for settling the conflict in South Ossetia. Non-use of force and stopping all military action are among the conditions which must be met if the proposal is to succeed.

At a meeting in Moscow, the Russian and French presidents called for the sides to sign up to the following principles:

1) Non-use of force.

2) Stop all military action.

3) Free access to humanitarian aid.

4) Georgian troops return to their previous positions before the conflict.

5) Russian troops return to the lines they held before the start of the military operation. Before an international solution is worked out Russian peacekeepers are taking up an additional security role.

6) The start of an international discussion over the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia."

http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28896
with
Russia 'backs Georgia peace plan giving you the impression that Georgia thought it all up. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7557457.stm

Meanwhile as reported in the first part of the IMC English language compilation of links and sources on the war, Putin allocated ove 400 million dollars to reconstruct South Ossetia. Georgia at that point didn't need to be reconstructed. It does now. Ukraine has led the donations tonight with 6 million US dollars, which is a lot of hard currency. It's as much as the European Union spends on stopping locusts in the western Sahara every year.


"Information Links & Sources for the (short) war in South Ossetia" dealt with the start of the war and provided if not neutral links equal coverage to both beligerant parties from 8/8/08 to 11/8/08
http://indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/405939.html

12th August "Information Links & Sources for the (short) war in South Ossetia (2)" deals with the end of the hot war and the beginning of the disinformation spin and selective memory. with all IMC links and Wikipedia articles compiled.
http://indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/406523.html

A Cold war with the Russians not only provides more employment and creative opportunites to Western entertainment, it's more fun than a non-existence and un-winnable war against mythical muslim madzers.

by redjade Wed Aug 13, 2008 01:00

''The context of that decision should be understood, however. For months, the Georgian forces inside the enclave within South Ossetia loyal to Tbilisi - as well as those forces across the de facto border - had been systematically attacked using artillery fire and other means. The obvious aim of this was to draw Georgia into an open military confrontation with Russia. Everybody on the Georgian side understood this very clearly, and all efforts were made to avoid such an outcome. However, by exerting this pressure, the Russians - through its puppet-regime in Tskhinvali - were putting the Georgian government into a lose-lose situation. Yes, engaging Russians in an open military confrontation was against Georgian interests. But, by helplessly watching how its citizens were systematically attacked and killed, the Georgian government was losing its credibility incrementally.

The escalation of violence in the days before 8 August demonstrated that what was on the Russians' mind was to wipe out the pro-Georgian enclave within South Ossetia, thus causing a serious humanitarian catastrophe.''

http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/georgia-under-fire...tment

by ivan Wed Aug 13, 2008 19:26

Today's updates : Georgians to take Russia to Hague alledging they are the victims of ethnic cleansing as Western human rights groups claim reports of Georgians using genocide against Ossetians were exaggerated. Georgians claim the Russians have crossed ceasefire lines through Gori and sunk boats in Poti port. Russians claim they shot down a Georgian drone. Russians also claim to have evidence that Georgia was about to militarily occupy the autonomous region of Abkhazia.

updated details from both sides news agencies on today's bits & bobs will appear soon complete with compilation of IMC English & Russian language contributions here (the IMC UK server is slow at updating content) -
http://indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/406523.html?c=on#c201913

George Bush has decided to send humanitarian aid with the USAF. This of course is a blatent attempt to take advantage of the situation and brinkmanship.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7559252.stm

discussion thread on IMC Belarus http://belarus.indymedia.org/14067
proposals for Russian anarchists to oppose Russian imperialism http://ru.indymedia.org/newswire/display/20821/index.php

Gorbachev writes for the English Guardian : "we had no choice".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/13/rus...rgia1

updated details from both sides news agencies on today's bits & bobs will appear later here complete with compilation of IMC English & Russian language contributions -
http://indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/406523.html?c=on#c201913

the Wikipedia page is now in total "rage status" with every possible challenge being made.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_South_Ossetia_%2820...08%29

Georgian non-state online sources appear to back online but are not yet updated to include anything more than breaking news from the state info department. We must wait to read local opinion if ever we will.

The embedded video is one of the most curious bits of Georgian propaganda and shows their president supposedly taking cover as a Russian fighter jet attacked him two days ago. Like most of the propaganda it is meant for a US audience.

Caption: Video Id: xlN7VDe7XXk Type: Youtube Video
Embedded video Youtube Video

by Baku Boyo Wed Aug 13, 2008 19:35

that's the next target for Russia.
Bear in mind Medvedev's last job...with Gazprom...

by ivan Wed Aug 13, 2008 20:47

There are no ethnic minority states within Azerbaijan which are recognised by Russia.

still always a chance to help people recognise the far flung partners of Europe.

Azerbaijan a nation with an ethnic Azeri and Shi‘ite Muslim majority population, is a secular and unitary republic. The country has been a co-founder of GUAM and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, and has been a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States since September 1993. The country has a Permanent Mission to the European Union, hosts a Special Envoy of the European Commission and is a member of the United Nations, OSCE, Council of Europe, and the NATO Partnership for Peace (PfP) program. According to the 1999 census, ethnic minorities in Azerbaijan represent 10% of the population, including Lezgins (the largest minority group, making up 2.2% of the population), Russians (1.8%), Armenians (1.5%), and others, such as Talysh, Tats (Muslims and Judeo-Tats), Avars, Georgians, and Ashkenazi Jews, which comprise the remaining 3.9%

reaction to South Ossetian war and involvement of Azerbaijani folk in it :-

A spokesman for the Azeri Foreign Ministry, Khazar Ibrahim, said that the Georgian actions were in accord with international law and that Azerbaijan recognizes the territorial integrity of Georgia. http://today.az/news/politics/46850.html According to Azerbaijani media, several ethnic Georgians of Azerbaijani citizenship in Qakh and Zaqatala regions of Azerbaijan had crossed the Azerbaijani-Georgian border to join Georgian forces. http://groong.usc.edu/news/msg240420.html There is negative public opinion in Azerbaijan regarding Russia's actions in Georgian territory http://www.today.az/news/politics/46883.html

illustration is of one element of the cyberattacks which were made on Georgia last week. Russia was also cyber attacked. Interestingly the people who noticed it were US and Israelis and the people who fixed Georgian state networks were Polish.

http://indymedia.org.uk/en/2008/08/406523.html?c=on#c201913

Georgian government internet portal as seen last week.

by Baku Boy Wed Aug 13, 2008 22:46

There are no ethnic minority states within Azerbaijan which are recognised by Russia..

That's okay, they'll just come up with a different reason...unless the Azeri govt plays ball, and sends some of that high quality crude North into Mother Russia instead of West through Georgia.

Their only other export option, in the absence of open pipes in Georgia, is south to Iran through Armenia, and Armenia is going to play along with Russia, not NATO.

Russia does not like NATO being near it's borders sure, but the prospect of NATO positioning itself close enough to the Caspian oil prizes is intolerable to the Kremlin, knowing full well, there's a high chance of warfare to control that oil in the not too distant future.

Another benefit of shutting down pipelines through Georgia... a rise in oil prices.
the BTC pipeline was doing about 800,000 barrels a day last month, and the Baku-Supsa pipeline was handling about 500,000 barrels a day. With that taken off the market, it's going to have an effect, and oil exporting countries, (like Russia) will reap a reward, while the economies of oil importing countries (US, UK, most of NATO, and Ireland....) will suffer an increase in transport, heating and electricity generation costs.

The leaders of the Ukraine had better watch their backs as well. Russia did not take kindly to suggestions that the Ukraine would refuse the Russian navy access to what it considers a home port in Sebastopol.

The Polish will have some new thinking to do about the US missile shield.

One thing is for sure, the Iranian's are probably enjoying this macabre business... the US will be less likely to do anything rash to Iran, when it knows Russia can easily make a counter move on Georgia (wipe out the BTC and BS pipelines, ) and blame it on some Georgian aggression.

Meanwhile, Europe better get it's act together, energy wise.
Right now, we're getting 25% of our gas from Gazprom, which is a foreign policy weapon of the Kremlin.
They can turn off the taps when they don't like our policies, and sooner or later, they can put us into a serious bidding match with the Chinese, cos they can send that stuff East just as easily as they send it West.
Can you imagine what Europe would be like if some of the countries were depending on the good will of the Kremlin so that they don't freeze during winter?

by redjade Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:32

Juan Cole quotes the Israeli paper,

'''Russia, however, is considered key to efforts to isolate Iran, and Israeli officials have therefore urged their American counterparts in recent months to tone down Washington's other disputes with Moscow to focus all its efforts on obtaining Russia's backing against Iran. For instance, they suggested that Washington offer to drop its plan to station a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic - a proposal Russia views as a threat, though Washington insists the system is aimed solely at Iran - in exchange for Russia agreeing to stiffer sanctions against Iran. However, the administration rejected this idea.'''
http://www.juancole.com/2008/08/us-deters-israel-from-a....html

Baku Boy above) writes:

''The Polish will have some new thinking to do about the US missile shield.''

Yes, and the Poles did have some new thinking and this morning they announced they wish to sign up for the Radar systems even sooner than previously announced.

Chris Meserole writes:

''Take central Asia. For at least a year now, it's been clear that the Bush administration has two priorities in the region.

The first is to contain Iran and curtail its nuclear program. The second is to contain Russia and curtail its expansionism.

Regrettably, Georgia's President didn't get the memo. The violence currently tearing Mickail Saakashvili's country apart owes entirely to his confusion of those priorities.''
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-meserole/what-georg....html

So, Russia gets its chunk of the Caucuses
USA gets its Missile 'Defence' Radars
(not that it all is working to some preagreed plan - the NeoCon fumbled this ball horribly this time and Bush will go down in NeoCon history as capitulating to an expansionist Russia.

The super Irony is that Condi Rice's only real training in International Relations was 'Sovietology' - an actual academic term from the Cold War era - and this, after 7 and half years of Bushism, should be her moment in the sun and finally show her capabilities. She has failed utterly - along with all the other 'adults' in White House.

arbitrary Score so far:
USSR = 2
USA = 1
Israel = 1
Iran = -1
Georgia = -3 (preparing for same status that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had for 50 years - erased, but not gone)

by ivan Thu Aug 14, 2008 16:33

Gadi Evron (security architect) in the last days, news and government web sites in Georgia suffered DDoS attacks. While these attacks seem to affect the Georgian Internet, it is still there.

Facts:
1. There are botnet attacks against .ge websites.
2. These attacks affect the .ge Internet infrastructure, but it's reachable.
3. It doesn't seem Internet infrastructure is directly attacked.
4. Every other political tension in the past 10 years, from a comic of the Prophet Muhammad to the war in Iraq, were followed by online supporters attacking targets which seem affiliated with the opposing side, and vise-versa.

Thus he argued a few days ago that the attacks were the work of what he calls "kids". Despite that his opinions were selectively reported near and wide as implying that Russia had launched a state attack.
He's got upset now and started emailing everyone to straighten it out. http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-10016152-83.html

Meanwhile the BBC took the story up last night complete with the screenshot (which had shortly before appeared yesterday on both IMC ireland and IMC UK)

The nature of the Cyberattacks is to commentators so far being limited in comparison to the attacks on Estonia, even though there are striking differences. But today horizontal English language media analysis seems keen to explore the role of Poland in supporting Georgian state software architecture and look back further than the Estonian attacks to the crises with Belarus and the highly organised way the Polish government used both internet and SW radio to atempt to influence public opinion within that state. That of course was just about the stage that the existence of CIA dark prison sites in Poland was being rigorously denied by the twins.

______________________________________

I think it is a sign of how set in their thinking that our contemporary world is determined by US hegemony and "new world order" people have become that they continue to seek some Iranian angle in all this.

That's all finished now kids. I have consistently argued there would never be war on Iran & the events of the last week have done nothing but confirm that understanding of geopolitial reality which is now more multi-polar than ever before. You have witnessed the decline of US power and ambition in these last years ever since indeed the day that the UK persuaded it to enter Iraq. One might wonder has the decline of British influence been comparable?

by Hugh Briss Thu Aug 14, 2008 17:58

So, Russia gets its chunk of the Caucuses
USA gets its Missile 'Defence' Radars
(not that it all is working to some preagreed plan - the NeoCon fumbled this ball horribly this time and Bush will go down in NeoCon history as capitulating to an expansionist Russia.

Are you watching media from some parrallel univerise or something?

So far, from what I've seen, it appears the Neo-Cons have done quite well for themselves.

Thanks to The Media's Heroic Efforts™, most in the west see Russia as an aggressive expansionist intent on the commission of War Crimes (!!), meanwhile through the use of euphemistic phrases such as 'humanitarian relief' the U.S. now finally has an openly acknowledged military presence in a country bordering Russia with an ethnic-conflict situation ripe for meddling globalist intrigue. Apparently it's All about the OIL, Stupid!™ when even a child could see it's All about the Russia, Stupid!™.

The super Irony is that Condi Rice's only real training in International Relations was 'Sovietology' - an actual academic term from the Cold War era - and this, after 7 and half years of Bushism, should be her moment in the sun and finally show her capabilities. She has failed utterly - along with all the other 'adults' in White House.

In (insert random year from the 70's or 80's here) a guy called Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote a book called The Grand Chessboard

here's a link to something I found using the intarwebs : http://www.wanttoknow.info/brzezinskigrandchessboard
I haven't read it so I have no idea what it says. but luckily, due to the aforementioned intarwebs all here can google it to and discover lots of amusing family fun and find out more. The reason i didn't bother to read it is because as I said earlier even a child could see it's All about the Russia, Stupid!™.

Zbiggy is now acting as an foreign policy adviser to none other than Mr Celebrity himself, the next JFK ........ Barack Hussein Obama. So we can expect 'hope'™ and 'change'™ 'cos BarryO's all about 'the change'™ and 'the hope'™